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A tuberculin skin test survey among Afghan children in Kabul
M Dubuis1, K Fiekert, M Johnston
1Medair, Ecublens, Switzerland.
Insights
Tuberculosis infection risk in Kabul has significantly decreased since 1963. The average annual risk of infection (ARTI) is now 0.34%, a substantial drop from previous estimates, indicating improved public health outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Public Health
Background:
- Tuberculosis remains a global health concern, necessitating ongoing surveillance.
- Understanding tuberculosis infection trends is crucial for effective control strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the prevalence and average annual risk of infection (ARTI) with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Kabul, Afghanistan.
- To assess changes in tuberculosis infection risk compared to previous surveys.
Main Methods:
- A cluster sampling survey was conducted in Kabul from October to November 2000.
- Tuberculin skin tests were administered to registered children, with infection prevalence determined using a cut-off point and mixture analysis.
- Average ARTI was calculated algebraically from prevalence estimates.
Main Results:
- The prevalence of tuberculous infection was estimated at 4.3% using a cut-off of >= 8 mm.
- The average ARTI was calculated to be 0.61% using the cut-off method.
- Mixture analysis estimated the average ARTI at 0.34% (95% CI: 0.23-0.54), a significant decrease from the 1963 estimate of 2.55%.
Conclusions:
- There has been a substantial reduction in the risk of tuberculous infection in Kabul since 1963.
- Despite past adverse conditions, the epidemiological situation regarding tuberculosis appears to have improved significantly.
Setting:
Kabul, Afghanistan, October to November 2000.
Objective:
To determine the prevalence and the average annual risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (ARTI).
Methods:
A cluster sampling method was selected to carry out the survey. Sub-divisions of Kabul's districts were chosen, and door-to-door visits were carried out to register the children. The prevalence of tuberculous infection was determined using a cut-off point to denote infection and mixture analysis. The average ARTI was derived algebraically from the prevalence estimates.
Results:
The tuberculin skin test was administered and read in 89% of registered children. Utilising a cut-off point of > or = 8 mm in duration, the estimated prevalence of tuberculous infection was 4.3% and the calculated average ARTI was 0.61%. Using mixture analysis, the average ARTI was estimated to be 0.34% (95% credibility interval 0.23-0.54). This indicates a substantial decrease from the estimated ARTI of 2.55% calculated in the 1963 survey.
Conclusions:
There has been a large decrease in the risk of tuberculous infection in Kabul since the last assessment. The adverse situation in the past decades does not appear to have severely affected the epidemiological situation.
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