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What is Climate?01:16

What is Climate?

Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
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Global Climate Change

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Investigating the Relationship between Sea Surface Chlorophyll and Major Features of the South China Sea with Satellite Information
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Published on: June 13, 2020

Reconstructing past climate from noisy data.

Hans von Storch1, Eduardo Zorita, Julie M Jones

  • 1Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht 21502, Germany. storch@gkss.de

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|October 2, 2004
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Past millennium Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstructions may underestimate centennial variability. Climate model simulations suggest actual past temperature variations were at least twice as large as previously reconstructed.

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Area of Science:

  • Paleoclimatology
  • Climate modeling
  • Statistical analysis

Background:

  • Empirical reconstructions of past millennium Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature show small variations and recent warming.
  • Multiproxy records are commonly used to reconstruct past climate variability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test the skill of empirical reconstruction methods at multidecadal and centennial time scales.
  • To assess the accuracy of past NH temperature variations derived from multiproxy records.

Main Methods:

  • Coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulation of the past 1000 years used as a climate surrogate.
  • Idealized proxy records generated from simulated grid-point temperature data with added statistical noise.
  • Regression-based methods applied to analyze centennial temperature variability.

Main Results:

  • Centennial variability of NH temperature is underestimated by the applied regression-based methods.
  • Simulated temperature variations suggest empirical reconstructions may miss significant past climate fluctuations.

Conclusions:

  • Existing empirical reconstructions may significantly underestimate the amplitude of past centennial-scale NH temperature variations.
  • Past NH temperature variations could have been at least twice as large as indicated by current reconstructions.