Flight experience and the likelihood of U.S. Navy aircraft mishaps

Although the flight experience level of U.S. Navy pilots has not declined in recent years, current budget constraints will eventually lead to reductions in flight hours per pilot. This implies an eventual shifting of the distribution of flight hours. Analyses show that the rate of aircrew factor and pilot error mishaps tends to decrease as pilots' flight experience in model increases. Aviation loss rates are higher during a pilot's first 500 hours in model. This seems to be true no matter if the pilot is simply inexperienced overall or a highly experienced aviator transitioning to a different aircraft. These data suggest, therefore, that if the in-model experience levels of naval aviators decline sufficiently, the mishap rate will increase.