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Statistical inference and Aristotle's Rhetoric.

Ranald R Macdonald1

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Stirling, UK. r.r.macdonald@stir.ac.uk

The British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology
|October 30, 2004
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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Statistical inference is defended by everyday reasoning, not formal logic. This approach, similar to Aristotle's enthymemes, uses examples, analogies, and signs to assess chance hypotheses.

Area of Science:

  • Philosophy of Science
  • Statistical Inference
  • Epistemology

Background:

  • Formal logic requires complete information, unlike real-world reasoning.
  • Statistical tests often lack logically justifiable conclusions.
  • Aristotle's enthymemes rely on examples, analogies, and signs for truth-seeking.

Discussion:

  • This paper defends statistical inference using principles of everyday reasoning.
  • Statistical tests function like enthymemes: using examples, model analogies, and effect size as signs against chance.
  • Few theories of statistical inference, except a weak version of Fisher's, acknowledge this.

Key Insights:

  • Statistical inference is analogous to Aristotelian reasoning from examples, analogies, and signs.
  • The size of an effect serves as a sign to reject the null hypothesis.

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  • Aristotle's reasoning about improbable outcomes anticipates Fisher's statistical approach.

    • Outlook:

    • Statistical inference can be understood as a classical form of reasoning.
    • This perspective offers a new framework for understanding and validating statistical methods.
    • Further exploration into the Aristotelian roots of scientific reasoning is warranted.