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Epidemic theory and group violence.

S B Patten¹, J A Arboleda-Flórez

¹Depts. of Community Health Sciences and Psychiatry, University of Calgary, 3330 Hospital Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. patten@ucalgary.ca

Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology

|November 19, 2004

Summary

Mathematical epidemic models, like the Kermack-McKendrick model, can predict crowd violence. Simulations show factors like crowd size and alcohol influence violent behavior, aiding prevention strategies.

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Mathematical Modeling
Social Science

Background:

Mathematical epidemic models, such as the Kermack-McKendrick model, are established tools for understanding disease spread.
Emerging research suggests that certain behaviors, including violence, can spread through populations similarly to infectious diseases, a phenomenon termed 'behavioral contagion'.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the applicability of epidemic modeling to understanding and predicting crowd violence.
To explore how mathematical models can inform public health policies related to violence prevention.

Main Methods:

The Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model was adapted by incorporating various parameter values specific to crowd dynamics.
Computer simulations were employed to analyze the impact of these parameters on the simulated spread of violent behavior within crowds.

Main Results:

Simulations successfully replicated key characteristics of crowd violence, including its prevalence in large gatherings.
The model highlighted the critical role of swift removal of violent individuals in de-escalating crowd disturbances.
Factors such as alcohol consumption and social identification processes were identified as significant contributors to the spread of violence.

Conclusions:

Epidemic modeling offers a valuable framework for identifying high-risk situations and developing effective prevention and control strategies for violent behavior.
Theoretical concepts from epidemic theory may also be applicable to modeling the dynamics of certain mental health disorders.

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