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Updated: Aug 7, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Smallpox models as policy tools
1Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892, USA. mckenzel@mail.nih.gov
Abstract:
Mathematical models can help prepare for and respond to bioterrorism attacks, provided that their strengths and weaknesses are clearly understood. A series of initiatives within the Department of Health and Human Services brought modelers together with biologists and epidemiologists who specialize in smallpox and experts in bioterrorism response and health policy and has led to the parallel development of models with different technical approaches but standardized scenarios, parameter ranges, and outcome measures. Cross-disciplinary interactions throughout the process supported the development of models focused on systematically comparing alternate intervention strategies, determining the most important issues in decision-making, and identifying gaps in current knowledge.
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