Birth spacing and child mortality in a Caribbean population

Ten independent variables were used to predict death before the first birthday for 4411 births that took place from 1878 to 1976 to 978 women of native ancestry on the island of St. Barthélemy. Significant predictors of death include the death of the mother within a year, the birth year, multiple birth, whether the preceding child also died before 1 year of age, and whether the next child was conceived before the index child was 1 year old. Unlike most prior studies, birth-spacing variables were only weakly related to death in the first year. The relative absence of contraceptive techniques to control birth spacing in the study population and the use of vital records rather than survey data distinguish this project from others and may account at least partly for the unusual findings.