Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

Sensitivity analyses for the backcalculation method of AIDS projections.

S R Wilson1, C Fazekas de St Groth, P J Solomon

  • 1Centre for Mathematics and Its Applications, Australian National University, Canberra.

Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
|January 1, 1992
PubMed
Summary

Estimates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and future AIDS diagnoses in Australia are sensitive to data uncertainties. Short-term projections, however, offer a more reliable forecast of new AIDS cases.

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

Clinical impact of CEUS on non-characterizable observations and observations with intermediate probability of malignancy on CT/MRI in patients at risk for HCC.

Abdominal radiology (New York)·2024
Same author

Continuing benefits of the Montreal Protocol and protection of the stratospheric ozone layer for human health and the environment.

Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology·2024
Same author

Changes in tropospheric air quality related to the protection of stratospheric ozone in a changing climate.

Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology·2023
Same author

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021.

Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology·2022
Same author

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2020.

Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology·2021
Same author

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019.

Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology·2020

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Statistics

Background:

  • AIDS is a notifiable disease in Australia with high-quality data.
  • Accurate estimation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence and Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) projections are crucial for public health planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the sensitivity of HIV infection estimates and AIDS diagnosis projections to uncertainties in the backcalculation method.
  • To identify the most reliable projection for future AIDS diagnoses based on data quality.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Australian AIDS case data diagnosed by mid-1989 and reported by January 1990.
  • Employed the backcalculation method to estimate HIV infections and project future AIDS diagnoses.
  • Assessed sensitivity to uncertainties including incubation period, infection intensity, and data aggregation levels.

Related Experiment Videos

Main Results:

  • Both HIV estimates and long-term AIDS projections were found to be sensitive to all considered uncertainties.
  • Short-term projections of AIDS diagnoses (next year) demonstrated the least sensitivity to these uncertainties.
  • The one-year projection range accurately encompassed the reported AIDS cases.

Conclusions:

  • Uncertainties in epidemiological data significantly impact HIV estimates and long-term AIDS projections.
  • Short-term AIDS diagnosis projections provide a more robust forecast, crucial for immediate public health interventions.
  • High-quality national surveillance data is vital for refining epidemiological models and improving public health strategies.