Spatial distribution patterns of malaria vectors and sample size determination in spatially heterogeneous...

The current study examined temporal and spatial distribution patterns of anopheline malaria vectors in a highland site and determined the number of houses to be sampled to achieve the targeted precision level. Adult mosquito sampling was conducted seasonally in May and August 2002 in a 3 by 3-km2 area, and in November 2002 and February 2003 in an expanded 4 by 4-km2 area in Kakamega District, western Kenya. Anopheles gambiae Giles was the predominant malaria vector species, constituting 84.6% of the specimens, whereas Anopheles funestus Giles constituted 15.4% of the vector populations. An. gambiae abundance increased by six- to eight-fold in the long rainy season over the dry seasons, but An. funestus abundance peaked 3 mo after the long rainy season. For both species, the coefficient of variation was larger than 1, suggesting that the distribution of mosquito adults was aggregated. Mosquito clustering occurred in houses <400 m from a valley bottom. The negative binomial distribution was accepted in one sample period (August 2002) for An. gambiae and in two sampling periods (May and August 2002) for An. funestus. Taylor's power law analyses indicated that An. gambiae distribution was more aggregated in the wet seasons than in the dry seasons, whereas the degree of aggregation of An. funestus was similar in all four seasons. The minimum number of houses required to estimate anopheline female abundance within the commonly acceptable precision level (0.2) should be 17 houses per km2 for An. gambiae and 42 houses per km2 for An. funestus. The potential factors causing aggregated anopheline mosquito distribution are discussed.