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Traffic fatalities and economic growth.

Elizabeth Kopits1, Maureen Cropper

  • 1US EPA -- National Center for Environmental Economics, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., MC 1809T, Washington, DC 20460, USA. kopits.elizabeth@epa.gov

Accident; Analysis and Prevention
|December 21, 2004
PubMed
Summary
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Traffic fatality risk decreases with income above $8,600, but global road deaths are projected to rise 66% by 2020 due to increases in developing nations.

Area of Science:

  • Transportation Safety
  • Economics
  • Global Health

Background:

  • Traffic fatalities represent a significant global health burden.
  • Economic development influences road safety outcomes, but the exact relationship is complex.
  • Forecasting future traffic trends is crucial for policy development.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the relationship between per capita income and traffic fatality risk.
  • To forecast global and regional traffic fatalities and motor vehicle stocks to 2020.
  • To identify the income threshold at which traffic fatality risk declines.

Main Methods:

  • Estimation of road death rate (fatalities/population) and its components using panel data (1963-1999) from 88 countries.
  • Modeling fatalities per population (F/P), vehicles per population (V/P), and fatalities per vehicle (F/V) as spline functions of real per capita GDP.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Incorporation of region-specific time trends and projection to 2020.

    • Main Results:

    • The turning point for declining traffic fatality risk is identified at approximately $8,600 (1985 international dollars) per capita income.
    • Motorization (V/P) increases with income but never declines; the decline in F/P is driven by a decreasing F/V.
    • Global road deaths are projected to increase by 66% by 2020, with significant regional disparities.

    Conclusions:

    • Economic growth initially increases, then decreases, traffic fatality risk, with a threshold around $8,600 GDP per capita.
    • High-income countries are projected to see a decline in fatalities, while China and India face substantial increases.
    • Road death rates are expected to diverge, rising in developing countries and falling in high-income nations by 2020.