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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 18, 2026

Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat

Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat

Published on: September 12, 2014

Anxiety and outcome predictions.

James A Shepperd¹, Jodi Grace, Laura J Cole

¹Department of Psychology, University of Florida, PO Box 112250, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA. shepperd@ufl.edu

Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin

|December 28, 2004

Summary

Anxiety can signal optimism in predictions. Participants who attributed their feelings to coffee became more optimistic about test results, suggesting anxiety may cause less optimistic predictions.

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Area of Science:

Psychology
Cognitive Science
Social Psychology

Background:

Individuals often exhibit decreased optimism when anticipating performance feedback.
Anxiety's role as a predictive signal remains an area of investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate if anxiety acts as a signal influencing prediction optimism.
To explore the impact of attributing arousal to an external source on predictions.

Main Methods:

A misattribution paradigm was employed with 108 participants awaiting test results.
Participants were manipulated to attribute experienced arousal to consumed coffee or not.
Prediction optimism was assessed under conditions of immediate versus delayed feedback.

Main Results:

Encouraging arousal misattribution to coffee led to optimistic predictions, even with immediate feedback.
A positive correlation was found between the degree of arousal misattribution and prediction optimism.
Anxiety was implicated as a potential cause, not just a consequence, of reduced optimism.

Conclusions:

Attributing arousal to external factors, like coffee, can foster optimism in predictions.
Anxiety's influence on predictions may be mediated by its interpretation as a signal.
Findings suggest a causal link between anxiety and less optimistic forecasting.