Prognostic importance of quantitative analysis of coronary cineangiograms

Many studies have shown the prognostic value of angiographic data, but few have examined quantitative parameters of wall motion and shape or coronary stenosis severity. To determine whether these parameters have prognostic importance, baseline angiograms of 283 patients with up to 11.2 years (mean 8.3) of follow-up were quantitated. Event-free survival curves were constructed using log-rank testing. These indexes were also considered in 2 predictive models (Cox regression models): 1 with ("clinical") and 1 without ("quantitative") subjective angiographic analysis and clinical information. Regional shape (anterior and inferior walls) and motion (anterior wall only) indexes were predictive of event-free survival when considered singly. But these parameters were not of independent prognostic importance in the regression models. The most important independent parameters in the quantitative model for predicting overall cardiac mortality or an initial lethal cardiac event were the ejection fraction and the percent diameter narrowing of each major coronary artery. Myocardial infarction was predicted by the percent diameter stenosis of the left main and left anterior descending arteries but not the ejection fraction. In the clinical model, the factors of overriding prognostic importance were the ejection fraction and the subjective determination of the number of vessels involved with "significant" stenoses. Quantitative coronary arteriography still contributed independent prognostic value. Thus, quantification of the ejection fraction and severity of coronary lesions were of independent, prognostic importance, whereas indexes of regional function and shape were not.