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Published on: September 26, 2018
[Old and new scoring systems for assessing cardiovascular risks: problems with the validity, the precision and the
Y M Smulders1, A M W Spijkerman, P J Kostense
1Afd. Inwendige Geneeskunde, VU Medisch Centrum, De Boelelaan 1117, 1081 HV Amsterdam. y.smulders@vumc.nl
Insights
Cardiovascular risk scores help identify patients for primary prevention. Lowering the treatment threshold is crucial to prevent undertreatment in high-risk individuals.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Risk Assessment
- Preventive Medicine
Context:
- Cardiovascular risk assessment scores are vital for primary prevention strategies.
- Current risk-score systems face challenges including external invalidity, imprecision, and risk-category heterogeneity.
- The Framingham risk score exhibits imprecision and heterogeneity, while the SCORE model, though more precise, lacks homogenous risk categories.
Purpose:
- To evaluate the limitations of current cardiovascular risk-score systems.
- To propose adjustments in risk thresholds for primary preventive treatment.
Summary:
- External invalidity, imprecision (wide confidence intervals), and risk-category heterogeneity compromise the quality of cardiovascular risk-score systems.
- The Framingham risk score is limited by imprecision and heterogeneity.
- The SCORE model shows improved precision but lacks homogenous risk categories.
Impact:
- Lowering the risk threshold for initiating primary preventive treatment is recommended to avoid widespread undertreatment of high-risk cardiovascular patients.
- Ensuring accurate risk stratification is essential for effective preventive cardiology.
Abstract:
Scoring systems for cardiovascular-risk assessment are increasingly being used to identify patients suitable for primary prevention measures. However, the quality of risk-score systems is threatened by (a) external invalidity, which can be partly compensated for by calibration of the score, (b) risk-score model imprecision, reflected by wide confidence intervals for the risk estimate, and (c) risk-category heterogeneity resulting from the random spread of known and unknown risk factors that are unaccounted for in the scoring system. The commonly used Framingham risk score is limited by imprecision and marked risk-category heterogeneity. The recently published SCORE risk model is probably more precise, but lacks homogenous risk categories. To prevent large scale undertreatment of patients at high cardiovascular risk, the commonly used risk threshold for initiating primary preventative treatment should be lowered.
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