Watershed land use is strongly linked to PCBs in white perch in Chesapeake Bay subestuaries

We related total PCBs (t-PCBs) in white perch (Morone americana), an abundant estuarine resident that supports a valuable recreational and commercial fishery in the mid-Atlantic region, to the amount and spatial arrangement of developed land in watersheds that discharge into 14 subestuaries of Chesapeake Bay. We considered the intensity of development in watersheds using four developed land-use measures (% impervious surface, % total developed land, % high-intensity residential + commercial [%high-res/comm], and % commercial) to represent potential source areas of PCBs to the subestuaries. We further evaluated the importance of source proximity by calculating three inverse-distance weighted (IDW) metrics of development, an approach that weighted developed land near the shoreline more heavily than developed land farther away. Unweighted percentages of each of the four measures of developed land explained 51-69% of the variance in t-PCBs. However, IDWs markedly improved the relationships between % developed land measures and t-PCBs. Percent commercial land, weighted by its simple inverse distance, explained 99% of the variance in t-PCBs, whereas the other three measures explained as much as 93-97%. PCBs historically produced or used in commercial and residential areas are apparently persisting in the environment atthe scale of the watersheds and subestuaries examined in this study, and developed land close to the subestuary has the greatest unit effect on t-PCBs in fish. These findings provide compelling evidence for a strikingly strong linkage between watershed land use and t-PCBs in white perch, and this relationship may prove useful for identifying unsampled subestuaries with a high risk of PCB contamination.