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Controlling disease spread on networks with incomplete knowledge
B Dybiec1, A Kleczkowski, C A Gilligan
1Institute of Physics, Jagellonian University, 30-059 Kraków, Poland. bartek@th.if.uj.edu.pl
Abstract:
Models for control of highly infectious diseases on local, small-world, and scale-free networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. We consider a case when individuals can be infectious before showing symptoms and thus before detection. For small to moderately severe incidence of infection with a small number of nonlocal links, it is possible to control disease spread by using purely local methods applied in a neighborhood centered around a detected infectious individual. There exists an optimal radius for such a control neighborhood leading to the lowest severity of the epidemic in terms of economic costs associated with disease and treatment. The efficiency of a local control strategy is very sensitive to the choice of the radius. Below the optimal radius, the local strategy is unsuccessful; the disease spreads throughout the system, necessitating treatment of the whole population. At the other extreme, a strategy involving a neighborhood that is too large controls the disease but is wasteful of resources. It is not possible to stop an epidemic on scale-free networks by preventive actions, unless a large proportion of the population is treated.
Insights
Controlling infectious diseases locally is possible with an optimal neighborhood radius, but ineffective on scale-free networks without widespread intervention. Choosing the right radius is crucial for efficient disease management.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Network Science
- Public Health
Background:
- Highly infectious diseases pose significant public health challenges.
- Disease spread dynamics are influenced by network structures and individual contact patterns.
- Pre-symptomatic infectiousness complicates early detection and control efforts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model and analyze the effectiveness of local control strategies for infectious diseases.
- To investigate the impact of network topology (small-world, scale-free) on disease containment.
- To determine optimal parameters for local control interventions and assess their economic implications.
Main Methods:
- Development of mathematical models for infectious disease transmission.
- Simulation of disease spread on different network structures (local, small-world, scale-free).
- Analysis of control strategies based on localized interventions around detected cases.
Main Results:
- Local control is feasible for small-world networks with optimal neighborhood radii.
- Epidemic severity is minimized at an optimal control radius, balancing effectiveness and resource use.
- Scale-free networks are resistant to local control; widespread intervention is necessary.
- Control strategy efficiency is highly sensitive to the chosen neighborhood radius.
Conclusions:
- Localized disease control strategies can be effective but require precise parameterization.
- Network structure critically determines the success of control interventions.
- Scale-free networks present unique challenges for infectious disease containment, often necessitating population-wide measures.
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