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Related Experiment Videos

Scan statistics for temporal surveillance for biologic terrorism.

Sylvan Wallenstein1, J Naus

  • 1Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Box 1023, 1 Gustave Levy Place, New York, NY 10029, USA. sylvan.wallenstein@mssm.edu

MMWR Supplements
|February 18, 2005
PubMed
Summary

This study compared two statistical methods for detecting abrupt increases in disease incidence for syndromic surveillance. Both methods, generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) and scan statistic, showed similar results using brucellosis data.

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Intentional biologic agent releases aim to maximize casualties before detection.
  • Syndromic surveillance needs sensitive statistical methods for early warning of disease outbreaks.
  • Detecting abrupt increases in symptoms is crucial for timely response.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Compare two statistical methods for detecting sudden incidence increases.
  • Evaluate methods based on moving time windows for syndromic surveillance.
  • Assess the performance of GLRT and scan statistic methods.

Main Methods:

  • Compared generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) and scan statistic methods.
  • Both methods used a moving time window approach.

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  • Evaluated methods using brucellosis data from the CDC.

    • Main Results:

    • The two statistical methods provided qualitatively similar results.
    • GLRT method is well-established but requires simulation.
    • Scan statistic method is simpler but relies on approximations.

    Conclusions:

    • Simple software modifications can improve GLRT performance.
    • Alternative methods using Poisson probabilities are viable when GLRT expertise is limited.
    • Effective syndromic surveillance relies on appropriate statistical detection methods.