Predictors of a positive baseline bone scan in breast cancer

The aim of this retrospective study was to determine the predictors of a positive bone scan in female patients with breast carcinoma. The participants were 126 females with newly diagnosed breast carcinoma and a baseline bone scan. Patients who had started treatment before their bone scan were excluded. Bone scans were assessed as "no metastases" or "definite skeletal metastases" without knowledge of the patient's predictor variables. Those with "possible metastases" were correlated with other available imaging and clinical information, and recategorized as "no metastases" or "definite skeletal metastases". Results were compared with predictor variables. Significant predictors were increasing age, a higher histopathological grading and positive progesterone receptor status following a forward-stepwise logistic regression analysis. Axillary nodal status, tumour size and oestrogen receptor status did not correlate with a positive bone scan. Not every patient needs a staging bone scan. This study is important because it predicts the need for baseline scintigraphy for specific patients in whom skeletal metastases are more likely to be present or to develop. The findings are particularly valuable in times of worldwide resource scarcity and evolving surgical practice.