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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 26, 2026

Automated Measurement of Pulmonary Emphysema and Small Airway Remodeling in Cigarette Smoke-exposed Mice

Automated Measurement of Pulmonary Emphysema and Small Airway Remodeling in Cigarette Smoke-exposed Mice

Published on: January 16, 2015

Smokers' unrealistic optimism about their risk.

N D Weinstein¹, S E Marcus, R P Moser

¹Department of Human Ecology, Rutgers University, Cook Office Building, 55 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8520, USA. neilw@aesop.rutgers.edu

Tobacco Control

|March 1, 2005

Summary

Smokers underestimate their risk of lung cancer and other smoking-related illnesses. This suggests smoking is not a fully informed choice, as individuals misperceive the potential harm.

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Cigarette Smoke Exposure in Mice using a Whole-Body Inhalation System

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Published on: October 22, 2020

Area of Science:

Public Health
Behavioral Science
Risk Perception

Background:

Previous research on smokers' risk perception yielded inconsistent findings.
Unrealistic optimism regarding tobacco-related illness risk has been observed in some studies but not others.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate smokers' perceptions of their risk for tobacco-related illnesses.
To address measurement issues in prior studies and explore new assessment questions.

Main Methods:

A national US telephone survey of 6,369 individuals, including 1,245 current smokers.
Smokers were asked about their personal risk versus the average smoker's risk for key questions.

Main Results:

Smokers underestimated their relative risk compared to non-smokers.
Contrary to some prior surveys, smokers perceived their lung cancer risk as lower than the average smoker.
Perceived risk for lung cancer and general cancer showed minimal increase with daily cigarette consumption; some smokers believed exercise negates smoking effects.

Conclusions:

Smokers demonstrate a significant underestimation of lung cancer risk relative to both smokers and non-smokers.
Misunderstandings regarding smoking risks are prevalent, indicating that smoking decisions may not be made with complete awareness of potential harm.