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Updated: Jul 26, 2026

Automated Measurement of Pulmonary Emphysema and Small Airway Remodeling in Cigarette Smoke-exposed Mice
Published on: January 16, 2015
Smokers' unrealistic optimism about their risk.
N D Weinstein1, S E Marcus, R P Moser
1Department of Human Ecology, Rutgers University, Cook Office Building, 55 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8520, USA. neilw@aesop.rutgers.edu
Smokers underestimate their risk of lung cancer and other smoking-related illnesses. This suggests smoking is not a fully informed choice, as individuals misperceive the potential harm.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Behavioral Science
- Risk Perception
Background:
- Previous research on smokers' risk perception yielded inconsistent findings.
- Unrealistic optimism regarding tobacco-related illness risk has been observed in some studies but not others.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate smokers' perceptions of their risk for tobacco-related illnesses.
- To address measurement issues in prior studies and explore new assessment questions.
Main Methods:
- A national US telephone survey of 6,369 individuals, including 1,245 current smokers.
- Smokers were asked about their personal risk versus the average smoker's risk for key questions.
Main Results:
- Smokers underestimated their relative risk compared to non-smokers.
- Contrary to some prior surveys, smokers perceived their lung cancer risk as lower than the average smoker.
- Perceived risk for lung cancer and general cancer showed minimal increase with daily cigarette consumption; some smokers believed exercise negates smoking effects.
Conclusions:
- Smokers demonstrate a significant underestimation of lung cancer risk relative to both smokers and non-smokers.
- Misunderstandings regarding smoking risks are prevalent, indicating that smoking decisions may not be made with complete awareness of potential harm.
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