Extending McNemar's test: estimation and inference when paired binary outcome data are misclassified

McNemar's test is popular for assessing the difference between proportions when two observations are taken on each experimental unit. It is useful under a variety of epidemiological study designs that produce correlated binary outcomes. In studies involving outcome ascertainment, cost or feasibility concerns often lead researchers to employ error-prone surrogate diagnostic tests. Assuming an available gold standard diagnostic method, we address point and confidence interval estimation of the true difference in proportions and the paired-data odds ratio by incorporating external or internal validation data. We distinguish two special cases, depending on whether it is reasonable to assume that the diagnostic test properties remain the same for both assessments (e.g., at baseline and at follow-up). Likelihood-based analysis yields closed-form estimates when validation data are external and requires numeric optimization when they are internal. The latter approach offers important advantages in terms of robustness and efficient odds ratio estimation. We consider internal validation study designs geared toward optimizing efficiency given a fixed cost allocated for measurements. Two motivating examples are presented, using gold standard and surrogate bivariate binary diagnoses of bacterial vaginosis (BV) on women participating in the HIV Epidemiology Research Study (HERS).