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Related Experiment Videos

Expert judgment in risk analysis and management: process, context, and pitfalls.

H Otway1, D von Winterfeldt

  • 1Health and Safety Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico 87544.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|March 1, 1992
PubMed
Summary

Formal expert judgment is crucial for managing hazardous industrial activities when scientific facts are unclear. Making expert judgment formal, explicit, and documented enhances transparency and public involvement in science and technology policy.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science and Policy
  • Risk Assessment and Management

Background:

  • Hazardous industrial activities require expert judgment due to scientific uncertainties.
  • Expert judgment has historically been implicit but is increasingly formalized.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To categorize formal expert judgment processes.
  • To illustrate challenges in expert judgment through case studies.
  • To explore the policy implications of formalizing expert judgment.

Main Methods:

  • Proposal of four categories for expert judgment.
  • Analysis of three case studies on expert judgment application.
  • Review of trends in formalizing expert judgment.

Main Results:

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  • Formal expert judgment is essential for regulating complex industrial risks.
  • Case studies reveal common pitfalls in applying expert judgment.
  • Formalization necessitates openness, transparency, and documentation.

    • Conclusions:

    • Formal expert judgment will play a growing role in policy-making.
    • Increased transparency in expert judgment can foster public engagement.
    • Standardized approaches to expert judgment are needed for reliable risk management.