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Effect of training location and time period on racehorse performance in New Zealand. 2. Multivariable analysis
N R Perkins1, S W J Reid, R S Morris
1Epicentre, Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North, New Zealand. N.R.Perkins@massey.ac.nz
Aim:
To investigate training location (horses trained in Matamata vs those trained at all other venues in New Zealand), and time period (1996-1997 and 1998-1999), while controlling for other horse- and race- or trial-related factors, as a means of assessing the possible impact of construction of a new training surface at the Matamata Racing Club on indirect measures of racehorse performance (number of starts, and failure to race within 6 months of any start).
Methods:
Multivariable logistic regression and poisson analysis were used to analyse data derived using a retrospective cohort approach. Multivariable logistic regression was also used to analyse a case-control study. All data were derived from New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing (NZTR), records of race and trial results for racehorses trained in Matamata and other venues in New Zealand, covering two 19-month time periods (1996- 1997 and 1998-1999). Outcome variables included whether a horse started again in the 6 months following any start that occurred in the first 13 months of either time period, and a count of the total starts for every horse.
Results:
Factors associated with increased risk of a start being followed by a 6-month no-race period included training location other than Matamata in comparison to horses trained in Matamata in the 1996-1997 time period, increasing age, 1998- 1999 over 1996-1997, starting in a trial rather than a race, placing fourth or worse in a start, softer track conditions, summer vs autumn, increasing cumulative exercise intensity in the 60 days prior to a start, and increasing race distance. Factors associated with an increase in the total number of starts included horses trained at Matamata in 1996-1997 compared with other time period-location combinations, younger age of horses at the time of a start, longer race distance, and an increasing proportion of starts in stakes races.
Conclusions:
Official race and trial results data provided a valuable resource for epidemiological studies of factors influencing racehorse performance. Results of analyses performed here provided little evidence of any adverse impact of a new training surface at the Matamata Racing Club on indirect measures of racehorse performance.
