Predictors of black medical student success

This study identifies those variables, cognitive and noncognitive, that relate significantly to the successful completion of the combined BA/MD degree program. The study sample included 69 black students who entered at year one, directly from high school, between 1972 and 1981. The Student's t-test identified statistically significant differences in the means of selection variables of successful and nonsuccessful black students. Single order correlations between predictor variables and the criterion of graduation were determined. This was followed by a stepwise regression procedure. The same predictor variables were correlated with grade point average (GPA) at the end of year one, and a further analysis added year one GPA to the predictors of graduation in a stepwise regression procedure. The same statistical analyses were carried out on a stratified sample of 69 nonminority students. Predictors of graduation for black students were parents' level of education, admission test score, self-evaluation, and council index (average vote of all committee members on an applicant). Year one GPA was a strong predictor of success for both cohorts of students. This study supports the inclusion of noncognitive information when considering black applicants for medical school. In particular, parents' levels of education and applicants' self-appraisals, along with admission test scores, showed a significant relationship to graduation 6 years later with the MD degree.