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Related Experiment Videos

The probability of parallel evolution.

H Allen Orr1

  • 1Department of Biology, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14627, USA. aorr@mail.rochester.edu

Evolution; International Journal of Organic Evolution
|March 29, 2005
PubMed
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Natural selection frequently drives parallel evolution at the DNA level. The probability of two populations fixing the same beneficial mutation is 2/(n+1), where n is the number of possible beneficial mutations.

Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Population Genetics
  • Molecular Evolution

Background:

  • Parallel evolution, where similar traits evolve independently in different lineages, is a key concept in evolutionary biology.
  • Understanding the frequency of parallel evolution at the DNA sequence level is crucial for predicting evolutionary trajectories.
  • Previous studies have explored factors influencing parallel evolution, but a general probability under selection remained elusive.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine the probability of natural selection driving parallel evolution at the DNA sequence level.
  • To quantify the likelihood of two populations in identical environments fixing the same beneficial mutation.
  • To assess the independence of this probability from specific biological parameters.

Main Methods:

Related Experiment Videos

  • Utilized extreme value theory to derive a general probability formula.
  • Modeled scenarios where a wild-type sequence can mutate to multiple distinct beneficial mutations.
  • Analyzed the fixation probability of identical mutations in replicate populations under selection.

Main Results:

  • The probability (P) of parallel fixation of the same beneficial mutation in two populations is P = 2/(n + 1), where n is the number of distinct beneficial mutations.
  • This probability is remarkably independent of gene length and the distribution of fitness effects.
  • The probability of parallel evolution under selection is nearly twice that observed under neutral evolution.

Conclusions:

  • Natural selection significantly increases the likelihood of parallel evolution at the DNA sequence level compared to neutral processes.
  • The derived formula provides a simple, generalizable prediction for the frequency of parallel molecular evolution.
  • These findings have implications for understanding adaptation and the predictability of evolution.