The smoker's paradox and the real risk of smoking

No satisfactory explanations have been offered for the smoker's paradox, the greater short-term survival of smokers after a myocardial infarction nor for the large variations in the coronary risk rate for smoking ranging between 1 and 5.9. These discrepancies as well as the smoker's paradox may be caused by different baseline characteristics of smokers and nonsmokers, whereas the usually quoted coronary risk of 2 is derived from studies based on the assumption of equal baseline characteristics. As neither this assumption nor the possibility of unequal starting conditions have been tested, we examined the main cardiovascular risk factors in smoking and nonsmoking boys as near as possible to baseline, at the age of fourteen. This age appeared to be best suited, because boys starting to smoke early are most likely to become regular and heavy smokers. Of 336 boys, 39 had smoked 8.3+/-6.0 cigarettes/day for 15.5+/-11.2 months. Compared to nonsmokers, boys who started to smoke early had lower LDL cholesterol and alpha2-antiplasmin, greater handgrip strength, vital capacity and forced expiratory volume, better perfomance on bicycle ergometry and higher testosterone. The differences in total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, vital capacity, handgrip strength, testosterone and alpha2-antiplasmin persisted after adjustment for age, body mass, and testosterone. In addition, the differences in perfomance on bicycle ergometry and forced expiratory volume persisted after adjustment for age. These favourable baseline characteristics of those starting to smoke early can explain the smoker's paradox. In addition, they suggest that the individual coronary risk in smokers is considerably higher than 2, because the assumption of equal baseline characteristics of smokers and nonsmokers cannot be upheld.