Related Experiment Video
Updated: Aug 18, 2026
Rat Model of the Associating Liver Partition and Portal Vein Ligation for Staged Hepatectomy (ALPPS) Procedure
Published on: August 14, 2017
A clinically based discrete-event simulation of end-stage liver disease and the organ allocation process
Steven M Shechter1, Cindy L Bryce, Oguzhan Alagoz
1Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA.
Background:
The optimal allocation of scarce donor livers is a contentious health care issue requiring careful analysis. The objective of this article was to design a biologically based discrete-event simulation to test proposed changes in allocation policies.
Methods:
The authors used data from multiple sources to simulate end-stage liver disease and the complex allocation system. To validate the model, they compared simulation output with historical data.
Results:
Simulation outcomes were within 1% to 2% of actual results for measures such as new candidates, donated livers, and transplants by year. The model overestimated the yearly size of the waiting list by 5% in the last year of the simulation and the total number of pretransplant deaths by 10%.
Conclusion:
The authors created a discrete-event simulation model that represents the biology of end-stage liver disease and the health care organization of transplantation in the United States.
