The effects of a severe drought on mouflon lamb survival

The mouflon population of Caroux-Espinouse, southern France, inhabits a highly seasonal area with dry summers. We monitored summer lamb survival during a severe drought in 2003, from early June to late August. The survival of 35 radio-tagged lambs over nine two-week periods was strongly affected by the timing of rainfall. Survival depended on the amount of rainfall recorded at a given 14 day period and in the previous 14-21 day period. Survival was not influenced by the exceptionally high mean daily temperature recorded during some periods. Male lamb survival (0.68) tended to be less than female survival (0.81), although not significantly, possibly because of a low sample size. The high lamb mortality (25.7%) recorded during a four-month period is much higher than previous estimates of first-year mortality (less than 10%). We recommend accounting for climatic variation in summer when studying the population dynamics of ungulates.