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It's the premiums, stupid: projections of the uninsured through 2013.

Todd Gilmer¹, Richard Kronick

¹Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, San Diego (UCSD), LaJolla, USA. tgilmer@ucsd.edu

Health Affairs (Project Hope)

|April 7, 2005

Summary

Rising healthcare costs drove a decline in health insurance coverage. A predictive model confirms this trend, projecting continued growth in the uninsured population through 2013.

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Area of Science:

Health Economics
Public Health Policy
Healthcare Access

Background:

Health insurance coverage declined between 1979 and 1999.
Rising healthcare costs were previously identified as the primary driver of this decline.

Purpose of the Study:

To validate a predictive model of health insurance coverage changes.
To assess the model's accuracy in accounting for coverage shifts from 1999 to 2002.

Main Methods:

Utilized an established economic model to analyze health insurance coverage trends.
Incorporated national health spending projections to forecast future coverage.

Main Results:

The model accurately predicted the increase in the uninsured population from 1999 to 2002.

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Projections indicate a rise in nonelderly uninsured Americans from 45 million (2003) to 56 million (2013).

Conclusions:

The model effectively explains and predicts changes in health insurance coverage.
Continued increases in national health spending are projected to exacerbate the number of uninsured individuals.