Effects of SO2 and NOx emission reductions on PM2.5 mass concentrations in the southeastern United States

Measurements from sites of the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) program, made from 1998 to 2001, are used with a thermodynamic equilibrium model, Simulating Composition of Atmospheric Particles at Equilbrium (SCAPE2), to extend an earlier investigation of the responses of fine particulate nitrate (NO3-) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) mass concentrations to changes in concentrations of nitric acid (HNO3) and sulfate (SO42-). The responses were determined for a projected range of variations of SO42- and HNO3 concentrations resulting from adopted and proposed regulatory initiatives. The predicted PM2.5 mass concentration decreases averaged 1.8-3.9 microg/m3 for SO42- decreases of 46-63% from current concentrations. Combining the S042- decrease with a 40% HNO3 decrease from current concentrations (approximating expected mobile-source oxides of nitrogen [NOx] reductions by 2020) yielded additional incremental reductions of mean predicted PM2.5 mass concentration of 0.2 microg/m3 for three nonurban sites and 0.8-1 microg/m3 for one nonurban and two urban sites. Increasing the HNO3 reduction to 55% (an estimate of adding Clear Skies Phase II NOx reductions) yielded additional incremental reductions of mean predicted PM2.5 mass concentration of 0-0.4 microg/m3. Because of the well-documented losses of particulate NO3- from Federal Reference Method (FRM) filters, only a fraction of these incremental changes would be observed.