Eco-epidemiological analysis of dengue infection during an outbreak of dengue fever, India

This study was designed to find out a relationship of dengue infection with climatic factors such as rainfall, temperature and relative humidity during the dengue fever epidemic in the year 2003. Blood samples were collected from 1550 patients experiencing a febrile illness clinically consistent with dengue infection. Serological confirmation of Dengue Infection was done using Dengue Duo IgM and IgG Rapid Strip test (Pan Bio, Australia), which detected dengue-specific antibodies. Monthly data of total rainfall, temperature and relative humidity for the year 2003 was obtained from Meteorological Department of Delhi, New Delhi and retrospectively analyzed.

Out of 1550 suspected cases, 893 cases (57.36%) were confirmed as serologically positive. The difference between numbers of serologically positive cases during different months was significant (p < 0.05). Larger proportions of serologically positive cases were observed among adults. Outbreak coincided mainly with the post monsoon period of subnormal rainfall. The difference between serologically positive cases as compared to serologically negative ones in post monsoon period was significantly higher (p < 0.001). The difference in the rainfall and temperature between three seasonal periods was significant (p < 0.05).

This prospective study highlighted rain, temperature and relative humidity as the major and important climatic factors, which could alone or collectively be responsible for an outbreak. More studies in this regard could further reveal the correlation between the climatic changes and dengue outbreaks, which would help in making the strategies and plans to forecast any outbreak in future well in advance.