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Updated: Aug 18, 2026
A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
[Seasonal variations in the outbreaks in patients with multiple sclerosis]
J Abella-Corral1, J M Prieto, D Dapena-Bolaño
1Servicio de Neurología, Hospital Clínico Universitario de Santiago de Compostela, A coruña, Spain. javiabella@hotmail.com
Introduction:
It has been suggested that there is an environmental factor at play in the aetiology and pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS) that acts as an essential component of the disease process, and a number of studies also point to a relationship between the seasons of the year and the appearance of outbreaks.
Aims:
Our aim was to study the possible relation between seasonal variations and the appearance of outbreaks in patients with relapsing-remitting forms of MS.
Patients And Methods:
We studied 31 patients over the period between 1997 and 2002 and calculated the monthly and quarterly rate of incidence of outbreaks. The statistical evaluation of the results was performed by applying the Chi-squared test.
Results:
We observed a higher incidence of outbreaks in the summer months (more in June) and a lower incidence in winter (less in December), with statistically significant differences.
Conclusions:
In our patients, outbreaks of MS are related to seasonal variations, with a higher number in the warmer months and fewer in the colder months.
Insights
Multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses are linked to seasons. This study found more MS outbreaks occur in summer months, particularly June, and fewer in winter, especially December.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Environmental Medicine
- Epidemiology
Context:
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) aetiology and pathogenesis may involve environmental factors.
- Seasonal variations in disease outbreaks have been previously suggested.
- Understanding these patterns is crucial for MS management.
Purpose:
- To investigate the relationship between seasonal variations and MS relapse incidence.
- To analyze monthly and quarterly relapse rates in relapsing-remitting MS patients.
- To determine if seasonal patterns in MS outbreaks are statistically significant.
Summary:
- A study of 31 relapsing-remitting MS patients from 1997-2002 analyzed seasonal relapse patterns.
- Relapse incidence was significantly higher during summer months (peaking in June) and lower in winter (lowest in December).
- Statistical analysis using the Chi-squared test confirmed these seasonal variations.
Impact:
- Findings suggest a correlation between MS outbreaks and seasonal changes.
- Higher MS relapse rates in warmer months indicate potential environmental triggers.
- This research contributes to understanding MS aetiology and may inform preventative strategies.
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