Trends in laryngeal cancer incidence in Lithuania: a future perspective

The aim of the present study was to assess the incidence of larynx cancer in Lithuania in the years 1978-2001 and to outline possible future trends.

The number of new laryngeal cancer cases in 1978-2001 was obtained from the Lithuanian Cancer Registry. The Lithuanian Department of Statistics provided data on the population being at the same age in the same years. The data were adjusted for age, using the direct method in accordance with the European standard; a linear regression analysis of trends in the larynx cancer incidence was performed.

After standardization of data for the period of 1978-2001, an upward trend was registered for both men and women: in 1978 the incidence was 10.73 for men and 0.26 for women per 100000 population, in 2001 the corresponding data were 11.6 and 0.7. Throughout the study period the incidence was higher in men than in women and the mean age of male and female larynx cancer patients was increasing: mean age for men was annually increasing by 0.1566 years and for women by 0.0602 years. The forecast for men in 2006 is 13.88 and for women 0.54 cases per 100000 population.

The increase in larynx cancer incidence is growing more rapidly among women than among men, and the mean age of the patients is also increasing. The forecast is that in 2006 the incidence rate will be increasing, and both men and women will get ill at an older age.