Risk calculations for hereditary effects of ionizing radiation in humans

A prediction of the extent to which an additional dose of ionizing radiation increases the natural germ cell mutation rate, and how much such an increase will affect the health status of future human populations is part of the service that human geneticists are expected to offer to human society. However, more detailed scrutiny of the difficulties involved reveals an extremely complex set of problems. A large number of questions arises before such a prediction can be given with confidence; many such questions cannot be answered at our present state of knowledge. However, such predictions have recently been attempted. The 1988 report of the United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation and the fifth report of the Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation of the US National Research Council have presented a discussion of the human genetics problems involved. Empirical data from studies on children of highly radiation-exposed parents, e.g. parents exposed to the atomic bombs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, or parents belonging to populations living on soil with high background radiation, have been mentioned in this context. Whereas precise predictions are impossible as yet because of deficiencies in our knowledge of medical genetics at various levels, the bulk of the existing evidence points to only small effects of low or moderate radiation doses, effects that will probably be buried in the "background noise" of changing patterns of human morbidity and mortality.