Uganda study found that death reduced HIV prevalence; did the public take home the wrong message?

Uganda has had a remarkable decline in HIV prevalence, and the question of what caused this decline is controversial. An intensive study of the Rakai region of Uganda from 1994 - 2003 found that much of the decreased prevalence resulted from death of people with HIV. But the incidence of new HIV infections was low throughout this study and did not change greatly, suggesting that the real cause of the success was a large reduction in new infections before the study began. The early data presented at the February 2005 Retroviruses conference also showed increasing use of condoms, and some backsliding on reducing the number of sexual partners. But neither change was big enough to greatly affect the incidence of new infections, at least in the aggregate data across the 50 villages studied. In summary, the big reduction in HIV prevalence occurred because of changes that happened before this study, not those measured within it. Therefore the new information does not contradict reduction in the number of sexual partners as a major cause of Uganda's success.