Predicting ground water nitrate concentration from land use

Ground water nitrate concentrations on Nantucket Island, Massachusetts, were analyzed to assess the effects of land use on ground water quality. Exploratory data analysis was applied to historic ground water nitrate concentrations to determine spatial and temporal trends. Maximum likelihood Tobit and logistic regression analyses of explanatory variables that characterize land use within a 1000-foot radius of each well were used to develop predictive equations for nitrate concentration at 69 wells. The results demonstrate that historic nitrate concentrations downgradient from agricultural land are significantly higher than nitrate concentrations elsewhere. Tobit regression results demonstrate that the number of septic tanks and the percentages of forest, undeveloped, and high-density residential land within a 1000-foot radius of a well are reliable predictors of nitrate concentration in ground water. Similarly, logistic regression revealed that the percentages of forest, undeveloped, and low-density residential land are good indicators of ground water nitrate concentration > 2 mg/L. The methodology and results outlined here provide a useful tool for land managers in communities with shallow water tables overlain with highly permeable materials to evaluate potential effects of development on ground water quality.