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Generalised reliability characteristics for probabilistic networks
Danielle Sent1, Linda C van der Gaag
1Institute of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.089, 3508 TB Utrecht, The Netherlands. danielle@cs.uu.nl
Background:
In the medical domain, establishing a diagnosis typically amounts to reasoning about the unobservable truth, based upon a set of indirect observations from diagnostic tests. A diagnostic test may not be perfectly reliable, however. To avoid misdiagnosis, therefore, the reliability characteristics of the test should be taken into account upon reasoning.
Objective:
In this paper, we address the issue of modelling the reliability characteristics of diagnostic tests in a probabilistic network.
Method:
To this end, we study the mathematical foundation of a test's characteristics and collate them with the probabilities required for a probabilistic network.
Results:
We show that the standard reliability characteristics that are generally available from the literature have to be further detailed and stratified, for example by experts, before they can be included in a network. We demonstrate these modelling issues by means of a real-life probabilistic network in oncology.
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