Do patients' preferences predict smoking cessation?

Social cognitive theories (e.g., ASE-model) propose that smoking cessation can be accomplished by changing underlying cognitive determinants such as attitudes, social influence, and self-efficacy. Others have argued that people's preferences for a health state can also predict behavior. In this study, preferences constitute the degree to which one is willing to give up a valuable good, that is survival, to obtain a desirable behavior (e.g., to quit smoking). The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of cognitive determinants and patients' preferences on the prediction of smoking cessation.

Data were collected as part of a randomized clinical trial. Smoking outpatients (N = 217) with cardiovascular disease were included. At baseline (T0), socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were measured. Social cognitions (pros of quitting, pros of smoking, social influence, and self-efficacy) and preferences (using a paper time trade-off measure (TTO)) were assessed at T1 (1 week). Smoking cessation was assessed at T2 (8 weeks).

Logistic regression analysis showed that socio-demographic (P = .92) and clinical (P = .26) factors did not predict smoking cessation, whereas social cognitions (P = .02) and preferences did (P = .00). On average, quitters are willing to give up an appreciable amount of survival years in order to quit smoking.

Preference for quitting was the strongest single predictor of smoking cessation.