Cattle movements and bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Epidemiology
• Disease Ecology
• Animal Health Management

Background:

• Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been endemic in Great Britain for two decades, with complex transmission pathways.
• Previous statistical models for BTB distribution relied on environmental variables and seasonality.
• Understanding disease spread is crucial for effective control strategies, as highlighted by government frameworks and historical outbreaks.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify the primary drivers of bovine tuberculosis occurrence in Great Britain.
• To compare the predictive power of cattle movement data against environmental and other variables.
• To develop improved models for projecting BTB distribution.

Main Methods:

• Utilized cattle movement data from the Cattle Tracing System (mandatory since January 2001).
• Compared the predictive performance of cattle movements against environmental, topographic, and anthropogenic variables.
• Developed simulation distribution models using data from 2002-2003 to project future disease spread.

Main Results:

• Cattle movements, especially from BTB-reported areas, significantly outperformed all other variables in predicting disease occurrence.
• The Cattle Tracing System data archive provided a robust predictor for BTB distribution.
• Simulation models incorporating cattle movements accurately predicted disease patterns.

Conclusions:

• Cattle movement is the most critical factor in the spread of bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain.
• Integrating cattle movement data into disease control strategies is essential for effective BTB management.
• Future BTB distribution can be reliably projected using cattle movement data.