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Predicting older drivers' accident involvement--Smeed's law revisited
Liisa Hakamies-Blomqvist1, Mats Wiklund, Per Henriksson
1Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, S-581 95 Linköping, Sweden. liisa.hakamies-blomqvist@vti.se
Accident; Analysis and Prevention
|June 14, 2005
Summary
Older drivers (65-84 years) show a relative decrease in accident involvement compared to their increasing presence on roads. This suggests predictions of increased older driver accidents are likely overly pessimistic.
Area of Science:
- Traffic Safety Research
- Gerontology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Concerns exist regarding the accident involvement of older drivers as their population and driving prevalence increase.
- Previous research often extrapolates accident trends based solely on demographic shifts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To test the underinvolvement hypothesis for older drivers (65-84 years) in traffic accidents.
- To compare the accident involvement trend of older drivers against their increasing presence in traffic.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Swedish archival data: police-reported accidents and driver license statistics.
- Incorporated Swedish questionnaire data on car usage patterns.
- Analyzed data from 1983 to 1999 to assess trends over time.
Main Results:
- Older drivers' accident involvement per license and per active driver showed a relative decrease from 1983 to 1999.
- This trend contrasts with the general driver population's accident involvement.
- Findings support the underinvolvement hypothesis for this age group.
Conclusions:
- The increase in older drivers' accident involvement is less pronounced than their increased traffic presence.
- Linear predictions of older driver accident rates based solely on population growth are likely inaccurate.
- Results indicate a more nuanced understanding of older driver safety is needed.