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Radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems--results of a model validation study
1Department of Environmental Science and Technology, Imperial College at Silwood Park, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK. george.shaw@nottingham.ac.uk
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity
|June 23, 2005
Summary
Nine models predicting radiocaesium transfer in forests after Chernobyl were validated. While collectively providing a prediction range, individual models show high divergence, especially for mushroom contamination, and long-term forecasting remains untested.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Radioactivity
- Forest Ecology
- Radiological Modeling
Background:
- The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) BIOMASS Forest Working Group (FWG) aimed to enhance understanding of radionuclide transfer in forests.
- Post-Chernobyl accident, a need arose to predict radiocaesium fate in European forests.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a blind model validation exercise for nine developed radiocaesium transfer models.
- To assess the capability of these models in predicting radiocaesium contamination in forest ecosystems.
Main Methods:
- A blind intercomparison of nine forest radionuclide transfer models was performed.
- Models were tested against experimental data for radiocaesium contamination in forests.
Main Results:
- Collectively, the models provided a prediction envelope encompassing experimental radiocaesium data over the tested timescale.
- Significant conceptual uncertainty led to high divergence in individual model predictions, particularly for edible mushroom contamination.
Conclusions:
- The validated models offer a range of predictions for radiocaesium contamination in forests.
- Further research is needed to address model uncertainties and test long-term forecasting capabilities, especially concerning specific compartments like mushrooms.