Related Experiment Videos
Operational effectiveness of suicide-bomber-detector schemes: a best-case analysis
1School of Management, and Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520-8200, USA. edward.kaplan@yale.edu
Summary
Even with perfect suicide bomber detectors, widespread deployment may not significantly reduce casualties. Investing in intelligence to prevent attacks is a more effective strategy than relying on sensor-based detection systems.
Area of Science:
- Security studies
- Operations research
- Risk analysis
Background:
- Standoff explosives-detection technologies offer potential for detecting pedestrian suicide bombers.
- Current sensors lack affordability and reliability for widespread deployment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the operational effectiveness of sensor-based detection schemes in reducing casualties from suicide bombing attacks.
- To evaluate the impact of hypothetical, perfectly sensitive and specific suicide bomber detectors.
Main Methods:
- Modeling of casualties from suicide bombings without intervention.
- Analysis of casualty reduction from interventions with timely detection.
- Probability assessment of timely detection under optimistic assumptions in urban settings.
Main Results:
- Widespread deployment of even ideal suicide bomber detectors may not reliably yield substantial casualty reductions.
- Optimistic assumptions regarding sensor performance did not guarantee meaningful improvements.
- Relaxing these assumptions further diminishes the potential effectiveness.
Conclusions:
- Sensor-based suicide bomber detection schemes are unlikely to be a reliable solution for reducing casualties.
- Intelligence gathering to prevent attacks before they occur is a more promising strategy.