[Simulating net primary production of rice and wheat crops: model validation and scenario prediction]

A model developed by the authors was validated against a total of 98 independent data sets to simulate net primary production (NPP) of rice and wheat crops. These data sets come from literature review and include field measurements conducted in different regions of China with various rates of N application. Model validation indicates that NPP of rice and wheat crops in main cultivated-area of China can be well simulated from weather, soil and N fertilization. A comparison between the simulated (y) and the observed NPP (x) resulted in a regression of y = 1.05x- 16.8 (r2= 0.771,p < 0.001, n = 98). Model scenario prediction for Nanjing area suggests that the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration will enhance carbon fixation, while the increase of air temperature will reduce carbon fixation by rice and wheat crops. Effect of global warming on the wheat carbon fixation is less than on the rice. Under present and future scenario with atmospheric CO2 concentration of 540 micromol x mol(-1) and temperature increment of 1-4 degrees C, N fertilization will enhance carbon fixation of rice and wheat crops. The enhancement for wheat is more significant than that for rice crop. However, the application of N will not significantly improve the carbon fixation, even reduce rice NPP when the N application rate is higher than 150 kg x hm(-2).