Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

The estimation of SARS incubation distribution from serial interval data using a convolution likelihood.

Anthony Y C Kuk1, Stefan Ma

  • 1Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore. stakuka@nus.edu.sg

Statistics in Medicine
|July 14, 2005
PubMed
Summary

Estimating the incubation period of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is vital for public health. This study uses serial interval data to accurately estimate incubation periods, supporting a ten-day quarantine.

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

Subjective masticatory function and healthy life expectancy among older adults in Singapore: a multistate life table analysis.

Journal of dentistry·2026
Same author

Link between tooth loss and health expectancy: findings from a prospective Singaporean population-based cohort study of older adults.

Journal of epidemiology and community health·2026
Same author

Prevalence, associated factors and temporal trends in multimorbidity in older adults in Singapore.

Scientific reports·2025
Same author

Disease burden, lifetime healthcare cost and long-term intervention impact projections among older adults in Singapore.

Nature aging·2025
Same author

Modeling recurrent heart failure risk in type 2 diabetes: impact of flexible HbA1c trajectories using nonhomogeneous Poisson processes.

Frontiers in endocrinology·2025
Same author

Harm Perception of Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Versus Regular Cigarettes in Singapore: Findings from a Nationwide Study.

International journal of behavioral medicine·2025

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Accurate estimation of the incubation period for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is critical for effective disease control and quarantine strategies.
  • The exact time of infection is often unknown, making direct measurement of incubation periods challenging for most patients.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a method for estimating the SARS incubation period distribution using observable serial interval data.
  • To validate the estimated incubation period and inform public health policy, specifically quarantine duration.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized convolution likelihood methods to estimate the incubation period distribution, assuming a Weibull distribution.
  • Applied the method to SARS case data from the Ministry of Health of Singapore.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Validated the indirect estimation method by comparing it with direct estimates from a limited patient subset.

    • Main Results:

    • The convolution likelihood method provided a precise estimate of the SARS incubation period distribution.
    • The results supported the implementation of a ten-day quarantine period.
    • The indirect estimation using serial intervals proved more precise than direct estimation due to broader data availability.

    Conclusions:

    • The convolution likelihood approach offers a robust and precise method for estimating incubation periods when direct measurement is infeasible.
    • The findings provide strong epidemiological evidence supporting a ten-day quarantine for SARS.
    • Serial interval data is a valuable resource for refining infectious disease modeling and control measures.