Limitations of a TCP model incorporating population heterogeneity

The variation between individuals in their dose-response characteristics complicates attempts to extract estimates of radiobiological parameters (e.g. alpha, beta, etc) from fits to clinical dose-response data. The use of 'population' dose-response models that explicitly account for this variability is necessary to avoid obtaining skewed parameter estimates. In this work, we evaluated an example of a 'population' tumour control probability (TCP) model in terms of its ability to provide reliable parameter estimates. This was accomplished by performing fits of this population model to 'pseudo' data sets, which were generated with Monte Carlo techniques and based on preset values for the various radiobiological parameters. The fitting exercises illustrated considerable correlations between the model parameters. Especially significant was the large correlation observed between the parameter mu=alpha/sigmaalpha used to characterize the level of population heterogeneity in radiosensitivity and the alpha/beta parameter typically used to describe the response to fractionation. The results imply that fits to clinical data may not be able to distinguish between tumours exhibiting a high degree of heterogeneity and a strong beta-mechanism and those containing little heterogeneity and having a weak beta-mechanism. One implication is that basing the design of optimal fractionation regimes on such fitting results may be error-prone. If in vitro assays are to be used to independently determine biologically reasonable ranges for parameter values, an accurate knowledge of the relationship between in vitro and in vivo dose-response characteristics is required.