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Confidence intervals and interval cancers ... needles and haystacks?
F Kee1, D Gorman, W Odling-Smee
1Department of Public Health Medicine, Northern Health & Social Services Board, Ballymena.
Public Health
|January 1, 1992
Summary
Measuring interval cancer rates is key for evaluating breast cancer screening programs. This study assessed breast cancer incidence and challenges in identifying interval cancers in Northern Ireland, finding current cancer registers may be insufficient.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Evaluating breast cancer screening programs relies on accurate interval cancer rate measurement.
- Interval cancer rates are influenced by population size, screening test sensitivity, and background breast cancer incidence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the incidence of breast cancer in Northern Ireland.
- To identify practical challenges in ascertaining interval cancers within the region.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of breast cancer incidence data for Northern Ireland.
- Assessment of cancer registry completeness for detecting interval cancers.
Main Results:
- An estimated 14 interval cancers per year are expected in Northern Ireland (population 1.5 million) based on a local incidence of 182/100,000.
- The completeness of the local cancer register may not be sufficient for reliably detecting this small number of interval cancers.
Conclusions:
- Aggregating data from multiple smaller regions could improve sample sizes and narrow confidence intervals for rate measurements.
- Variations in ascertainment mechanisms across regions may complicate the interpretation of interval cancer rates.