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Related Experiment Video

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New Variations for Strategy Set-shifting in the Rat
09:45

New Variations for Strategy Set-shifting in the Rat

Published on: January 23, 2017

MIRVs and the strategic balance.

I Bellany1

  • 1Department of International Relations, Australian National University, Canberra.

Nature
|May 2, 1970
PubMed
Summary

The United States and Soviet Union can upgrade missile launchers to multiple warheads without upsetting the nuclear balance. This quantitative analysis suggests strategic stability is maintained despite technological advancements in missile technology.

Area of Science:

  • Strategic Studies
  • Nuclear Deterrence Theory
  • International Security

Background:

  • The Cold War era saw a focus on nuclear balance and strategic stability between superpowers.
  • Advancements in missile technology, such as multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), raised concerns about escalating nuclear arsenals.
  • Previous analyses often assumed a destabilizing effect of MIRV deployment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantitatively assess the impact of replacing single-warhead missile launchers with MIRVs on the nuclear balance.
  • To determine if such a technological shift would inherently destabilize the strategic equilibrium between nuclear powers.
  • To provide a data-driven perspective on missile modernization and its implications for global security.

Main Methods:

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New Variations for Strategy Set-shifting in the Rat
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  • A quantitative treatment employing game theory and strategic modeling.
  • Analysis of nuclear force structures and warhead counts for the United States and the Soviet Union.
  • Simulation of scenarios involving the deployment of multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs).

Main Results:

  • The study's quantitative treatment indicates that the nuclear balance is not necessarily destabilized by the adoption of MIRVs.
  • Replacing single-warhead launchers with MIRVs can be accommodated within existing strategic stability frameworks.
  • The findings suggest that technological upgrades do not automatically lead to a loss of strategic equilibrium.

Conclusions:

  • The modernization of missile arsenals with MIRVs does not inherently threaten nuclear balance.
  • Strategic stability can be maintained even with significant technological advancements in nuclear delivery systems.
  • Policy decisions regarding missile deployment should consider quantitative assessments rather than assuming inherent destabilization.