Judgments of risk frequencies: tests of possible cognitive mechanisms

Ralph Hertwig1, Thorsten Pachur, Stephanie Kurzenhäuser

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Basel, Missionsstrasse 60/62, 4055 Basel, Switzerland. ralph.hertwig@unibas.ch

Related Concept Videos

Determination of Expected Frequency01:08

Determination of Expected Frequency

Suppose one wants to test independence between the two variables of a contingency table. The values in the table constitute the observed frequencies of the dataset. But how does one determine the expected frequency of the dataset? One of the important assumptions is that the two variables are independent, which means the variables do not influence each other. For independent variables, the statistical probability of any event involving both variables is calculated by multiplying the individual...
Cognitivism01:17

Cognitivism

Cognitive psychology emerged as a significant field in the mid-20th century. It focused on understanding humans' internal mental processes. This approach emphasizes how people perceive, remember, think, and solve problems—elements critical to human cognition.
Previously dominated by behaviorism, which prioritized observable behaviors and largely ignored mental processes, psychology transformed in the 1950s. Cognitive psychologists argue that understanding how we think and process information is...
The Availability Heuristic01:08

The Availability Heuristic

A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
Reason and Intuition01:37

Reason and Intuition

The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the brain can only use...
Lazarus's Cognitive Appraisal Theory01:20

Lazarus's Cognitive Appraisal Theory

Cognitive psychologist Richard Lazarus proposed the cognitive-mediational theory of emotions, which emphasizes how individuals' assessments of stressors significantly affect their experience of stress. According to Lazarus, the stress response is determined by a two-step appraisal process: primary appraisal and secondary appraisal. These cognitive appraisals help individuals evaluate the potential impact of a stressor and determine the adequacy of their coping resources.
Primary Appraisal:...
Causes of Social Behavior II: Cognitive Processes01:15

Causes of Social Behavior II: Cognitive Processes

Cognitive processes affect social behavior by guiding how individuals perceive, interpret, and respond to social stimuli. These mental processes enable individuals to assess others' behaviors, attribute causes to their actions, and form expectations based on past experiences.Causes of Behavior and Social JudgmentsIndividuals determine the causes of others' behaviors by distinguishing between personal traits and external circumstances. For example, if a friend frequently arrives late, an...