[Methodological bases for prognosis in medicine]

Current status of prognosis in clinical, experimental and prophylactic medicine is delineated with formulation of the purposes and feasibility of therapeutic and preventive realization of the disease onset and run prediction. Literature and first-hand experience provided the basis for grounding medical prognosis theory. Basic points in the theory are the following: utilization in the prognosis of only a complex of the most significant clinical signs of the disease, the patient's record, social and household, ecological and occupational aspects of the patient's life; comparison of the latter with leading pathogenetic mechanisms underlying the emergence and progression of the pathology; consideration of the relationships between dysfunction and morphology of the organs and systems; simultaneous analysis of the aggression factors, systemic reactivity and resistance of tissue; scrutiny of predisposition to pathological reactions. An essential aspect of medical prediction is a valid choice of mathematical methods of analysis and processing of the clinical information.