Tumour size distribution in mammography screening

Many mammography screening programmes have not been able to show higher percentages of small invasive cancers detected at subsequent screens than at initial screens. This has been a matter of serious concern as it contradicts the very theory of screening. Based on data from the county of Fyn, Denmark we evaluated the distribution based on point estimates, as well as on the entire tumour size distribution. The programme changed the amount of tumours less than 15 or 20 mm, but did not change the amount of tumours less than 10 mm. We evaluated the entire tumour size distribution and found that screen number was the only significant factor, implying that the number of screens changed the tumour size distribution. We recommend that the entire tumour size distribution is used to evaluate the ability of a programme to detect small breast cancers, instead of only point estimates as has previously been the practice.