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A cluster-based decision support system for estimating earthquake damage and casualties
Fuad Aleskerov1, Arzu Iseri Say, Aysegül Toker
1Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
Disasters
|August 20, 2005
Summary
A new Decision Support System for Disaster Management (DSS-DM) aids planning for earthquakes in areas with limited infrastructure. It rapidly estimates damage, injuries, and shelter needs for effective disaster mitigation.
Area of Science:
- Disaster Management
- Earthquake Engineering
- Urban Planning
Background:
- Less-developed infrastructural contexts necessitate flexible and robust disaster management systems.
- Accurate prediction of damage and losses is crucial for effective disaster mitigation and preparedness.
- Existing systems may not adequately address the specific needs of earthquake scenarios in resource-constrained environments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To describe a Decision Support System for Disaster Management (DSS-DM) tailored for earthquake scenarios.
- To provide a tool for operational and strategic planning, policy-making, and preparedness in less-developed infrastructural settings.
- To estimate human losses, injuries, and the need for temporary shelters at district and sub-district levels.
Main Methods:
- Development of a scenario-based approach for disaster impact assessment.
- Creation of system modules for building clusters by use and construction typology.
- Estimation of damage to building clusters, human losses and injuries, and shelter requirements.
- Application and validation of the DSS-DM in Besiktas municipality, Istanbul, Turkey.
Main Results:
- The DSS-DM effectively estimates potential human losses, injuries, and shelter needs based on earthquake scenarios.
- The system provides damage and loss estimations at granular (district and sub-district) levels.
- The modular design allows for flexibility in assessing different building types and uses.
- Case study application in Istanbul demonstrates the system's practical utility.
Conclusions:
- The developed DSS-DM is a valuable tool for enhancing disaster management capabilities in less-developed infrastructural contexts.
- The system's scenario-based approach and detailed estimations support informed decision-making for earthquake preparedness and mitigation.
- Further application and refinement of the DSS-DM can improve community resilience to seismic events.